election predictions

Risky Turkish election predictions

I am not going as a political junkie with my ears to the ground to

predict the result of the upcoming election, riding by riding.

More, I will use my own evaluation process which is entirely

subjective. I have a very different political background than most of

my Turkish friends with whom I agree and disagree on several issues.

Predictions are undoubtedly influenced by specific insights,

experiences, or biases about particular contests. However, I strive to

come up with predictions that are most sensible as we see them. Let me

clarify: I will use general and typical Turkish trends. And I listened

to politically minded individuals who pay close attentions to news and

issues. I also share polling information and gossips, which may

influence my prediction.

Also, I take in consideration 'foreign influences'. Doesn't matter of

these are from Islamistic countries, the EU or the Jointed States of

America. What most of the people outside Turkey doesn't understand is

that there is a 'silent Islamitization on local level' in Turkey going

on. At the same time, the closer Turkey comes to adapting the Acquis

communautaire, the more their rights are guaranteed.

Anyway, here we go:

I strongly believe that the AK party will gain around 35%-40% of the

votes. Mainly from rural areas but also from the new middle class in

urban areas. And from people who are saying that they are against the

AK party but secretly support them. Also don't underestimate the

Turkish people who are living abroad. They often see the big picture,

and progress which has been made in Turkey. Next to these factors,

people will understand that the first priority of a country in crisis

is the macro-economy, the micro-economy will improve as well with more

years of AK party in the government. Looking at the high unemployment,

especially under young people, they will not vote for an MHP-CHP

possible coalition. People want Pavlov: security, freedom, shelter.

And it looks like that the AK party did a great job in this, but have

still a long way to go. Stability is the magic word of the AK party.

CHP will get 13%-15% of the total of the votes. They have a strong

stronghold in several parts of the society, but lacks charisma for new

young voters. Their posters and campaign messages are of the last

century. Turks are much smarter than what they are promising now for

80 years. I don't think they get a big share of the new young voters.

Baykal is simple not the man who attracts new voters.

The GP, the Young Party is the underdog. And Turkish people (like the

Dutch) love the underdog...I predict that they will get 11%-14% of the

votes, maybe even more. Why? A lot of people will do a protest vote.

And since the CHP, DP, and MHP didn't evolve with the time mind, and

people don't want to vote for the traditional parties, I think Cem

Uzan - with his charm - will do a good job. Especially under new young

voters and people who don't know for which party must vote. And

charisma can cover a lot. And since he is young and can act as a

leader (which Turkish people like) the outcome of this election can be

a surprise for the GP...and Turkey.

DP will not pass the threshold. As presented earlier as an good

alternative for the current AK party and CHP, lost its attraction when

both the DYP and ANAP failed to compromise on their candidate list. I

think that for most people its not clear where they stand for and more

important, what are they going to do after the elections. I will give

them 5%-8% of the votes.

MHP will always appeal to certain people as the savior of Turkey with

their warrior mentality. But more on sentiments than logical

statements. A 5% hardcore of ultra-nationalist will always support

them. But throwing a rope in the public, which the leader of the MHP

did, to hang the imprisoned PKK gang leader, is damaging MHP its

image. I don't think that the Turkish people like this a-social

behaviour anymore. Also, the party leader, Devlet BAH�ELI, is too old

to lead the Turkish nation in a new area. I expect not more than 6%-8%

of the Turkish population to vote for them.

Then there are still circa 15% of the voters left. Regarding the

Kurdish-Turkish candidates, who will run as independent but in fact

for the DTP, I expect that they will take 10% of the seats. And then

we have i.g. Baskin Oran, one of the many independent candidates. I

expect that they also will gain votes and seats.

In the end, an AK party with the Young Party coalition will be an